Florida is the most active investor market in the country and the one where the most deals die on a line item nobody modelled. This is what actually decides a Florida deal in 2026, and how we structure the money around it.
Everywhere else, insurance is a rounding error in the carry budget. In Florida it is a primary line item, and underwriting it casually is the most common way a competent investor turns a profitable project into a break-even one.
Florida property insurance averages roughly $7,136 a year for $300,000 of coverage. The national average is about $2,543. That is nearly three times, and it lands on you for the entire hold.
On a flip running six to nine months, budget $1,700 to $2,300 per project in premium alone. On a rental, the gap between an inland and a coastal property runs $1,500 to $2,500 a year, which is $125 to $210 a month. On a house renting at $1,800, that difference is most of your cash flow.
There is some relief in the direction of travel. Reinsurance pricing has moderated and the 2025 season brought no direct Florida landfall, so carriers rebuilt surplus and rates have begun easing. Model on today's quotes rather than tomorrow's hopes, but the trend is finally the right way.
Two practical consequences. Get a real bindable quote before you close, not a rule-of-thumb per-square-foot estimate, because premiums vary more by wind zone and roof age than by price. And in the DSCR calculation, insurance sits inside the payment: a $400 monthly premium instead of $200 moves a 1.25 ratio to roughly 1.10 and changes your pricing tier.
Florida prices are not uniformly rising any more. Cape Coral is down 10.2 percent year over year and North Port 8.9 percent. Forecasts for 2026 have most major Florida metros posting a small decline, averaging around 1.9 percent, with Miami the exception at roughly plus 1.1 percent.
This matters for how your loan is sized. A loan measured against value is a loan measured against the most recent comparable sale on your street. In a falling market that comp may be a neighbour who had to sell. A loan measured against cost is measured against what you are actually putting in.
Our fix and flip and bridge terms go to 100 percent of cost with a 70 percent ceiling on value. On a Florida deal where the comps are soft, the value ceiling is usually what binds, and that is the number to model first. Run it before you write the offer.
The practical version: if your exit price assumption is last spring's comp, your loan will come in smaller than you planned and the shortfall lands on you at closing.
Florida closed 54,030 homes in the first quarter of 2026 with 7.47 months of supply and a median around $394,000, down 1.3 percent. High inventory and motivated sellers is the opposite of the market most guides still describe. Florida also led the nation in 2025 foreclosure filings at 0.44 percent of homes, which is where a lot of the acquisition opportunity sits.
Statewide numbers hide everything that matters, though. These metros are running different races.
Entry around $275,000 to $340,000 against rents of $2,100 to $2,250 gives rent-to-price ratios of 0.65 to 0.70 percent, the best in the state. Polk sits inland, so insurance runs $1,400 to $1,900 rather than coastal numbers, and the effective property tax rate is about 0.95 percent. Tenant demand comes from Amazon, Publix and Geico facilities and from the logistics corridor between Tampa and Orlando. If the deal has to cash flow from month one, this is where to look.
Metro median home value sits around $308,900, and the Westside and Northside submarkets run $280,000 to $330,000. A three-bedroom rents for roughly $1,775 to $1,900; HUD fair market rent for a two-bedroom is $1,658. Realistic cap rates are 6 to 8 percent — the one percent rule is gone in the good neighbourhoods. What makes Jacksonville interesting is that it never overshot: while Tampa and Orlando flipped to flat or negative, Jacksonville's house price index is still positive at about 1.8 percent. Cash buyers are 27 to 30 percent of transactions against a historical 18 to 20 percent, so as-is properties have a reliable exit. It is also the largest city by land area in the contiguous United States — treating it as one market is the standard out-of-state mistake.
Gross rental yields around 7.9 percent, with the 2026 median price forecast at roughly minus 1.6 percent. Insurance premiums average $3,371 to $3,422, high nationally but low for Florida. The short-term rental corridor near the parks runs higher gross yields with far more seasonality and far more regulation risk. Underwrite an STR on long-term rent as your downside case.
Covered in depth on its own page, including the neighbourhood price table and the 41 percent growth in Seminole Heights. Read the Tampa breakdown.
Elevated inventory and a 10.2 percent annual decline in Cape Coral give real negotiating leverage on acquisition. The same conditions make the exit slower and the appraisal riskier. Buy here on a wide margin or not at all.
Fix and flip and bridge from 10.99 percent with 1.99 points, up to 100 percent of cost and 70 percent of value, minimum loan $50,000, terms to twelve months, minimum credit score 600. Ground-up construction from 8.5 percent, non-owner-occupied single family, $100,000 to $3 million. DSCR rental loans from 5.99 percent, $75,000 to $2 million, up to 80 percent of value, no minimum credit score, with cross-collateral allowed on two or more properties. Commercial to $5 million and 75 percent of value, including multi-family, mixed use, self storage, office, retail and industrial.
All of it is non-owner-occupied and business purpose, held in an entity. And there is a rate match: bring a fully executed letter of intent from another lender, no contingencies, meeting the same underwriting, and the rate gets matched. That covers the interest rate only and is not a commitment to fund.
The condo. Post-Surfside inspection law means older condo associations are levying assessments that can run into five figures per unit with little warning. Reserve studies and structural inspections are now mandatory, and buildings that deferred maintenance for twenty years are settling up. Single family is the safer collateral here by a wide margin, and lenders price condos accordingly.
An insurance quote that arrives late. A binder that comes in at double your estimate two days before closing kills the deal at the worst possible moment. Quote it during due diligence.
An ARV built on 2024 comps. In a market where several metros are down year over year, a stale comp set produces an appraisal gap, a smaller loan and a bigger cash requirement.
A rehab scope with no contingency. Florida code compliance on older stock — wind mitigation, roof age, electrical — has a way of expanding a scope after demolition starts. Ten to fifteen percent on top is not padding.
A primary residence. We cannot lend on a house you will live in. That is not a preference, it is federal law under Regulation Z.
Yes. Statewide, including the panhandle and the Keys, subject to the property and the deal.
Days rather than the forty-five to sixty a bank takes, which is the entire point at auction or on a distressed acquisition. The variable is usually the insurance binder and the title work, not the loan.
It can be considered, but the safer approach is to qualify on long-term rent so a soft season or a rule change does not put you underwater. Kissimmee gross yields look excellent until occupancy moves.
It affects the insurance, which affects the ratio, which affects the loan. Wind zone, roof age and elevation drive the premium more than the purchase price does.
Answer these and we will tell you whether it is fundable, on what terms, and how fast it could close. Investment property only — we do not lend on a home you will live in.
We will run the numbers and come back to you. If it is time-sensitive, call 903-636-7511.
Dominion Hard Money arranges private and asset-based real estate financing for business purposes only. Not a commitment to lend. All loans subject to underwriting, property review, and approval. Terms vary by property, borrower experience, and exit strategy.
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